More than wishful thinking : Causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions


Meffert, Michael F. ; Huber, Sascha ; Gschwend, Thomas ; Pappi, Franz Urban



DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.08.001
URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
Additional URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228460619...
Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2011
The title of a journal, publication series: Electoral Studies
Volume: 30
Issue number: 4
Page range: 804-815
Place of publication: Amsterdam [u.a.]
Publishing house: Elsevier Science
ISSN: 0261-3794
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Social Sciences > Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-12)
School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2013-) > Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-12)
Subject: 320 Political science
Abstract: Accurate expectations about the outcome of elections play a central role in psychological and economic theories of voting. In the paper, three questions about voters’ expectations are investigated. First, we identify and test several factors that influence the overall accuracy or quality of voters’ expectations. Second, the phenomenon of “wishful thinking” is tested and confirmed for expectations about the electoral performance of individual parties and coalitions. Finally, two mechanisms how expectations might influence voting behavior are identified and tested. Based on surveys from Austria and Germany, the results suggest that voters not only rely on expectations to avoid casting “wasted” votes for parties without electoral chances, but that they are able to engage in fairly sophisticated strategic coalition voting.

Dieser Eintrag ist Teil der Universitätsbibliographie.




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